Hanover’s Perspective
Hanover County Businesses Gather for Economic Outlook Seminar
On September 23, 2025, Hanover County Economic Development, with sponsorship from the Hanover County Economic Development Authority and Wegmans, hosted a timely and informative seminar focused on the national and local economic outlook. The highlight of the event was a keynote presentation by Renee Haltom, Vice President and Regional Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, who delivered a thought-provoking address titled “Economic Outlook: Bumpy But Bearable.”
Held before a full room of local business leaders, elected officials, and stakeholders, the seminar provided both a macroeconomic overview and a deep dive into how national trends are playing out in Hanover County. The event also marked the public release of a recent Hanover Business Survey, shedding light on the sentiments, challenges, and expectations of local employers.
National Economic Snapshot: A Slower, Uncertain Path Ahead
In her address, Haltom painted a nuanced picture of the U.S. economy in 2025—one of moderation and uncertainty, rather than crisis. The good news: GDP remains solid and consumer spending, while slowing, is still intact. But headwinds persist.
Key takeaways from Haltom’s perspective included:
- GDP Growth: Holding steady but expected to remain below trend due to cautious consumer behavior and potentially the effects of tariffs.
- Labor Market: Job growth has notably slowed, with recent data revisions showing even weaker momentum than previously thought. However, unemployment remains near historic lows.
- Inflation: Slightly elevated, exacerbated by newly implemented tariffs. Goods prices, once a stabilizing force, are now contributing to inflation rather than counteracting it.
- Tariffs: A central theme throughout the presentation, Haltom explained the classic economic consequences of tariffs—higher prices, reduced consumption, and job impacts—while noting the actual effects of recent tariffs have been slower to materialize but are now becoming visible.
- Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed has recently cut interest rates, and the median Fed policymaker anticipates two more cuts in 2025, aiming to balance inflation and employment concerns.
“We’re entering a phase of difficult trade-offs,” Haltom noted. “With inflation still elevated and growth slowing, the Fed must weigh each move carefully.”
Hanover Business Survey Results: Cautious Optimism Amid National Uncertainty
Following Haltom’s remarks on the national economy, the results of the 2025 Hanover Business Survey were presented, offering a snapshot of local business sentiment and challenges. The survey received 33 responses, mostly from manufacturing firms with 49 or fewer employees.
Key insights shared by Haltom included:
- Business Outlook: Hanover firms are generally more optimistic about their own prospects than about the broader U.S. economy. Most expect demand for their products or services to remain stable or grow slightly over the next year.
- Hiring Plans: Most businesses anticipate maintaining or slightly increasing their workforce over the next 12 months.
- Pricing Power: The majority of respondents reported no change in their ability to pass on cost increases to customers. The next largest group indicated a slight reduction in pricing power.
- Tariff Concerns: Tariffs topped the list of concerns—even among firms not directly impacted—reflecting widespread economic unease. Businesses affected by tariffs are responding with strategies like changing suppliers and cutting costs.
- Labor Market Conditions: Most firms with 5 to 49 employees reported no change in their ability to find qualified workers over the past year. Among those experiencing greater difficulty, the main reasons cited were fewer qualified applicants, lower application volumes, and mismatches in pay expectations.
Conclusion: A Bumpy Road, But Not a Breakdown
The theme of the day—“Bumpy but Bearable”—resonated both nationally and locally. Haltom’s presentation highlighted the careful balancing act ahead for the Federal Reserve, businesses, and policymakers alike. Meanwhile, Hanover businesses, while cautious, are showing signs of resilience and optimism.
“We’re proud to see that Hanover businesses are navigating these national headwinds with a clear-eyed view and practical strategies. Today’s conversation reinforces the value of bringing national expertise to our local leaders,” said Brandon Turner, Director of Hanover County Economic Development.
The seminar was another example of Hanover County’s commitment to providing valuable resources and insight into its business community—particularly during times of uncertainty.
About Hanover County Economic Development
Hanover County Economic Development works to promote business growth and economic vitality within Hanover County, VA. By fostering partnerships, providing data-driven insights, and supporting workforce and infrastructure development, the office plays a central role in sustaining the county’s economic health.